ABPW10 PGTW 030600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS/030600Z-040600ZNOV2025//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/030151ZNOV2025//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 03NOV25 0000Z, TYPHOON 31W (KALMAEGI) WAS LOCATED NEAR 
10.5N 128.9E, APPROXIMATELY 368 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF SONSOROL, AND HAD 
TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 70 KNOTS GUSTING TO 85 KNOTS. 
SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 030300) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 8.5N 
147.0E, APPROXIMATELY 300 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF CHUUK. MULTISPECTRAL 
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND A 030400Z AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE 
DEPICT A POORLY-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH LOCALIZED BURSTS OF 
CONVECTION WITHIN THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS 
DEPICTS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE 
EQUATORWARD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF 5-10 KTS, 
AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) OF 29-30 C. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE 
ON THE STEADY CONSOLIDATION OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS 
WELL AS A GENERAL NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. GFS AND NAVGEM ARE MORE 
AGGRESSIVE IN DEVELOPMENT THAN ECMWF AND THE ENSEMBLES. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
IS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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