ABPW10 PGTW 010600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS/010600Z-020600ZNOV2025//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/010151ZNOV2025//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
9.4N 138.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.4N 139.0E, APPROXIMATELY 55 NM EAST 
OF YAP. MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A CONSOLIDATING LLCC  
WITH CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. A 010413Z 89 
GHZ GWI AMSR2 MICROWAVE IMAGE ALSO DEPICTS CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER 
THE NORTHWESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE LLCC. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS 
DEPICTS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH DUAL CHANNEL 
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF 5-10 KTS, AND WARM 
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 29-30 C. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON A GENERAL 
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AS WELL AS THE CONSOLIDATION OF THE SYSTEM 
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED 
AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 
1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL 
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. SEE REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 
010200) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
11.8N 147.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.7N 147.7E, APPROXIMATELY 188 NM 
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM. MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A 
PARTIALLY OBSCURED LLCC WITH LOCALIZED BURSTS OF CONVECTION. 
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS DEPICTS A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT 
WITH WEAK UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, MODERATE WIND SHEAR OF 15-20 KTS, AND 
WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 29-30 C. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON THE 
SLOW CONSOLIDATION OF THE SYSTEM AS WELL AS ITS GENERAL NORTHWESTWARD 
TRACK, THOUGH GFS DEPICTS THE SYSTEM FORMING EARLIER THAN THE OTHER 
DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND ENSEMBLES. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS 
ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1009 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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