ABPW10 PGTW 010200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/010200Z-010600ZNOV2025//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/010151ZNOV25//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
9.0N 139.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.4N 138.9E, APPROXIMATELY 44 NM EAST 
OF YAP. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A 
BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH PERSISTENT DEEP 
CONVECTION TO THE NORTH AND THE NEAR THE CENTER OF THE LLCC. A 
312304Z 37GHZ GMI MICROWAVE IMAGE ALSO DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTIVE CURVED 
BANDING NEAR THE CENTER OF THE LOW-LEVEL ROTATION. ENVIRONMENTAL 
ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT FOR INVEST 98W 
WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KNOTS), GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, 
AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30-31 C). GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND 
ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT ON STEADY INTENSIFICATION WITH A 
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL 
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 010200) FOR FURTHER 
DETAILS.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
11.6N 148.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.8N 147.4E, APPROXIMATELY 184 NM 
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY (MSI) 
DEPICTS FLARING CONVECTION IN THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY ALONG THE 
DISORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ENVIRONMENTAL 
ANALYSIS FOR THE AREA INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT 
WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KTS), WARM SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES (29-30 C) AND GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT.GLOBAL 
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 99W WILL 
CONTINUE WEST WITH GFS AND GEFS SHOWING A MORE SIGNIFICANT 
INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE 
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1009 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1) TO HIGH//
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