WTPN21 PGTW 010200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 98W)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 9.3N 139.1E TO 10.8N 135.6E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 010000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 9.4N 138.9E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
9.0N 139.7E IS NOW LOCATED 9.4N 138.9E, APPROXIMATELY 44NM EAST OF YAP. 
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A BROAD LOW-LEVEL 
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION TO THE NORTH 
AND THE NEAR THE CENTER OF THE LLCC. A 312304Z 37GHZ GMI MICROWAVE IMAGE 
ALSO DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTIVE CURVED BANDING NEAR THE CENTER OF THE LOW-
LEVEL ROTATION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR 
DEVELOPMENT FOR INVEST 98W WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KNOTS), 
GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30-31 C). 
GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT ON STEADY 
INTENSIFICATION WITH A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
020200Z.//
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