ABPW10 PGTW 310100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/310100ZOCT2025-310600ZOCT2025//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
7.1N 142.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.2N 142.3E, APPROXIMATELY 259 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF YAP. ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS 
A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). 
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS FOR THE AREA INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR 
DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5-10 KTS), WARM SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES (30-31 C), AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC 
MODELS SHOW 98W INTENSIFYING OVER THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS WITH GFS BEING 
THE MORE AGGRESSIVE MODEL. WHILE GLOBAL ENSEMBLES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT 
ON GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT AS IT TRANSITS ALONG A WESTWARD TRACK. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1010 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1) TO MEDIUM//
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