ABIO10 PGTW 301800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN/301800Z-
311800ZOCT2025//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92A) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
17.1N 67.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 68.5E, APPROXIMATELY 253 NM WEST 
OF MUMBAI, INDIA. ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS AN 
ELONGATED, POORLY DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH FLARING 
CONVECTION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS MODERATELY FAVORABLE 
CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE TO HIGH SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL 
WIND SHEAR (20-25 KTS), GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES (28-29 C). ENSEMBLE MODELS SHOWS AN INCREASED NUMBER OF 
MEMBERS REACHING 30-40 KTS FOR THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS BETWEEN GEFS AND 
ECENS BUT STARTS TO SIGNIFICANTLY DECREASE AFTER 48 HOURS. DETERMINISTIC 
MODELS ALSO SHOW A SIMILAR TREND WITH INCREASED WINDS TO THE SOUTHEAST 
BUT NO FURTHER DEVELOPMENT, AND SHOWS MINIMAL DEVELOPMENT AFTER 24 
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. 
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 999 MB. THE POTENTIAL 
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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