ABPW10 PGTW 300600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS/300600Z-310600ZOCT2025//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 7.1N 
142.8E, APPROXIMATELY 313 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF YAP. ANIMATED ENHANCED 
MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS CYCLING DEEP CONVECTION THAT IS OVER 
A POORLY ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ENVIRONMENTAL 
ANALYSIS FOR THE AREA INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT 
WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KTS), WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES 
(30 C), AND GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS 
SHOW 98W INTENSIFYING OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH GFS BEING THE MORE 
INTENSE MODEL. WHILE GLOBAL ENSEMBLES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH 98W 
INTENSIFYING AND MOVING WEST.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 12 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO 
BE NEAR 1009 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT 
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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