ABIO10 PGTW 291800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN/291800Z-
301800ZOCT2025//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92A) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
18.0N 68.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 67.8E, APPROXIMATELY 309 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF MUMBAI, INDIA. ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) 
DEPICTS A BROAD, POORLY DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH 
FLARING CONVECTION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS MODERATELY FAVORABLE 
CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20 
KTS), GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES 
(27-28 C). ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT, WITH ECENS SHOWING A 
STRONGER SIGNAL FOR DEVELOPMENT ON A NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TRACK AND 
INCREASED WINDS WHILE GEFS CAPTURES LESS CONFIDENCE IN REGARDS TO TRACK 
AND WEAKER WINDS. DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT REVEALING A 
BROAD AND POORLY DEFINED CIRCULATION THAT TRANSITS NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD.  
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM 
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 999 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
REMAINS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN