ABIO10 PGTW 281800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN 
OCEAN/281800Z-291800ZOCT2025//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/281351ZOCT2025//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 28OCT25 1200Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 03B (MONTHA) WAS LOCATED 
NEAR 15.9N 82.1E, APPROXIMATELY 537 NM SOUTHWEST OF KOLKATA, INDIA, 
AND HAD TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 45 KNOTS GUSTING TO 
55 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTIO31 PGTW 281500) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92A) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
17.4N 69.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 68.8E, APPROXIMATELY 242 NM 
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MUMBAI. ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) 
AND A MICROWAVE METOP-B 281611Z PASS DEPICTS A BROAD, POORLY DEFINED 
CIRCULATION WITH VERY LIMITED CONVECTION WITHIN THE LOW-LEVEL 
CIRCULATION CENTER. A PARTIAL ASCAT-B 281556Z PASS REVEALS A WIND 
FIELD OF 10-15 KNOT WINDS WITH 15-20 KNOTS DISPLACED TO THE NORTHWEST. 
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT 
WITH MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20 KNOTS), GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW 
ALOFT, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-29 C). GLOBAL AND 
ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT 92A WILL TRACK GENERALLY 
NORTHWARD BUT REMAIN BROAD OVER NEXT 24-48 HOURS.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 22 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL 
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 999 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
REMAINS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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