ABIO10 PGTW 271800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN 
OCEAN/271800Z-281800ZOCT2025//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/271351ZOCT2025//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 27OCT25 1200Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 03B (MONTHA) WAS LOCATED 
NEAR 13.3N 84.0E, APPROXIMATELY 612 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KOLKATA, 
INDIA, AND HAD TRACKED NORTH- NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 45 KNOTS 
GUSTING TO 55 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTIO31 PGTW 271500) FOR FURTHER 
DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92A) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
16.3N 67.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 67.5E, APPROXIMATELY 335 NM 
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MUMBAI. ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) 
DEPICTS 92A AS A BROAD AREA OF POORLY DEFINED ROTATION WITH CONVECTION 
SHEARED TO THE SOUTHWEST. A PARTIAL ASCAT-B 271623Z PASS REVEALS AN 
ASYMMETRICAL WIND FIELD OF 10-15 KNOT WINDS NEAR THE CIRCULATION 
CENTER WITH 20-25 KNOTS DISPLACED TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST. 
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR 
DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KNOTS) AND WARM SEA 
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-29 C), OFFSET BY WEAK DIVERGENCE ALOFT. 
GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 
92A HAS POTENTIAL FOR SLOW, STEADY DEVELOPMENT WHILE TRACKING 
NORTHWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS.  MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 999 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
REMAINS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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