ABIO10 PGTW 261800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN/261800Z-
271800ZOCT2025//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/261351ZOCT2025//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 26OCT25 1200Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 03B (THREE) WAS LOCATED 
NEAR 11.3N 86.1E, APPROXIMATELY 357 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHENNAI, INDIA, 
AND HAD TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS. 
SEE REF A (WTIO31 PGTW 261500) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92A) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
14.4N 66.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 66.8E, APPROXIMATELY 409 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF MUMBAI, INDIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY (EIR) 
DEPICTS FLARING CONVECTION ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY DISLOCATED FROM A 
POORLY ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ENVIRONMENTAL 
ANALYSIS FOR THE AREA INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT 
WITH MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20 KTS), WARM SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES (28-29 C), AND GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC 
AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT 92A WILL CONTINUE ON A 
NORTHWARD TRACK. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 
23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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