WTIO21 PGTW 260600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.1N 87.6E TO 17.4N 79.7E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 260000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 11.2N 87.5E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD AT 07 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
10.5N 87.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.2N 87.5E, APPROXIMATELY 439 NM 
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHENNAI. ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY 
(MSI) DEPICTS CURVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING ON THE NORTH WESTERN 
PERIPHERY, WITH DEEP CONVECTION BUILDING OVER THE LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS FOR THE AREA 
INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE VERTICAL 
WIND SHEAR (15-20 KTS), WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30 C), AND 
GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE 
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 94B WILL CONTINUE NORTH AND GFS AND 
GEFS SHOW FASTER INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 996 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
270600Z.
//
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