ABIO10 PGTW 260600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN 
REISSUED/260600Z-261800ZOCT2025//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/260552ZOCT2025//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92A) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
14.3N 65.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 66.3E, APPROXIMATELY 467 NM 
SOUTHWEST OF MUMBAI. ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY (MSI) 
DEPICTS FLARING CONVECTION IN THE WESTERN PERIPHERY ALONG A POORLY 
ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS 
FOR THE AREA INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH 
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20 KTS), WARM SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES (28-29 C), AND GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL 
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT 92A WILL 
CONTINUE NORTH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 
23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. 
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
10.5N 87.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.2N 87.5E, APPROXIMATELY 439 NM 
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHENNAI. ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY 
(MSI) DEPICTS CURVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING ON THE NORTH WESTERN 
PERIPHERY, WITH DEEP CONVECTION BUILDING OVER THE LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS FOR THE AREA 
INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE VERTICAL 
WIND SHEAR (15-20 KTS), WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30 C), AND 
GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE 
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 94B WILL CONTINUE NORTH AND GFS AND 
GEFS SHOW FASTER INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 32 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 996 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE REF A (WTIO21 PGTW 260600) FOR FURTHER 
DETAILS.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA. 1.B.(2) TO 
HIGH AND REMOVED TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (CHENGE) INFORMATION DUE TO 
FINAL WARNING EXPIRATION.//
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