ABIO10 PGTW 252100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN 
REISSUED/252100Z-261800ZOCT2025//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/251951ZOCT2025//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FINAL WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92A) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
15.7N 66.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 65.7E, APPROXIMATELY 498 NM 
SOUTHWEST OF MUMBAI, INDIA. ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY 
(EIR) DEPICTS A BROAD CIRCULATION WITH FLARING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED 
WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS 
REVEALS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND 
SHEAR (5-10 KTS), MODERATE WESTWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM 
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-29 C). GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS DEPICT 
A BROAD CIRCULATION WITH MINIMAL DEVELOPMENT. ENSEMBLE MODELS SHOW 
LESS OF A SIGNAL OF DEVELOPMENT THAN THE PREVIOUS RUNS BUT STILL 
DEPICTS EVENTUAL GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS 
ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED 
TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT 
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
12.0N 88.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.5N 87.5E, APPROXIMATELY 452 NM 
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHENNAI, INDIA. ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY 
(EIR) DEPICTS A BETTER DEFINED AND CONSOLIDATED LLCC EMBEDDED WITHIN A 
TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF SOUTHEASTERN INDIA TO THE 
ANDAMAN ISLAND CHAIN. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE 
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE WESTWARD AND EQUATORWARD 
UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, LOW (10-15 KTS) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND 
WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30 C). GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND 
ENSEMBLE MODELS SHOW 94B CONSOLIDATING OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS WHILE 
TRACKING GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 32 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED 
TO BE NEAR 996 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT 
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 25OCT25 1800Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (CHENGE) WAS LOCATED 
NEAR 8.1S 49.9E, APPROXIMATELY 635 NM EAST OF DAR ES SALAAM, TANZANIA, 
AND HAD TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 30 KNOTS GUSTING TO 40 
KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 252100) FOR THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS 
SYSTEM.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPDATED AREA IN PARA. 2.A.(1) WITH 04S 
FINAL WARNING INFORMATION.//
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