ABIO10 PGTW 251800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN 
OCEAN/251800Z-261800ZOCT2025//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/250751ZOCT2025//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92A) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
17.1N 71.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 66.8E, APPROXIMATELY 397 NM 
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MUMBAI, INDIA. ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY 
(EIR) DEPICTS A BROAD CIRCULATION WITH FLARING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED 
WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS 
REVEALS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND 
SHEAR (5-10 KTS), MODERATE WESTWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM 
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-29 C). GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS DEPICT 
A BROAD CIRCULATION WITH MINIMAL DEVELOPMENT. ENSEMBLE MODELS SHOW 
LESS OF A SIGNAL OF DEVELOPMENT THAN THE PREVIOUS RUNS BUT STILL 
DEPICTS EVENTUAL GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS 
ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
10.7N 89.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 88.0E, APPROXIMATELY 459 NM EAST 
OF CHENNAI, INDIA. ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS A 
BETTER DEFINED AND CONSOLIDATED LLCC EMBEDDED WITHIN A TROUGH THAT 
EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF SOUTHEASTERN INDIA TO THE ANDAMAN ISLAND 
CHAIN. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR 
DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE WESTWARD AND EQUATORWARD UPPER LEVEL 
OUTFLOW, LOW (10-15 KTS) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM SEA 
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30 C). GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE 
MODELS SHOW 94B CONSOLIDATING OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS WHILE TRACKING 
GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED 
AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 
996 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL 
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 25OCT25 0600Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (CHENGE) WAS LOCATED 
NEAR 7.8S 51.5E, APPROXIMATELY 706 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF ANTANANARIVO, 
MADAGASCAR, AND HAD TRACKED WEST- NORTHWESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE 
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35 
KNOTS GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 250900) FOR FURTHER 
DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
8.7S 79.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.5S 76.1E, APPROXIMATELY 401 NM EAST 
OF DIEGO GARCIA. ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS A 
BROAD AREA OF TROUGHING WITH FLARING CONVECTION. ENVIRONMENTAL 
ANALYSIS REVEALS MARGINAL CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH HIGH 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20-25 KNOTS), POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND WARM 
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-29C). GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAVE 
CONSISTENTLY INDICATED A LOWER LIKELIHOOD OF DEVELOPMENT OF INVEST 95S 
THROUGH THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS, INSTEAD REVEALING AN ASYMMETRIC TROUGH 
WITH ENHANCED WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. ENSEMBLE MODELS HAVE 
ALMOST COMPLETELY DROPPED THE SYSTEM WITH THE EXCEPTION OF 3 MEMBERS 
REACHING 35KTS ON ECENS AND A SINGLE MEMBER ON GEFS FOR ABOUT 6 HOURS. 
THE DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON A WESTWARD TRACK TOWARDS 
DIEGO GARCIA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 
28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. 
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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