ABIO10 PGTW 241800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN 
OCEAN/241800Z-251800ZOCT2025//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/240751ZOCT2025//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92A) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
11.6N 71.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 71.5E, APPROXIMATELY 136 NM 
SOUTHWEST OF MUMBAI, INDIA. ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) 
DEPICTS A BROAD CIRCULATION WITH FLARING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH 
THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS 
REVEALS MARGINAL CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE TO 
UNFAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20-25 KNOTS), MODERATE POLEWARD AND 
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-29 C). GLOBAL 
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS DEPICT A BROAD CIRCULATION WITH 
GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 
23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 
1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL 
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
10.8N 89.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.7N 89.0E, APPROXIMATELY 532 NM 
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHENNAI, INDIA. ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY 
(EIR) DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LLCC EMBEDDED WITHIN A TROUGH THAT 
EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF SOUTHEASTERN INDIA TO THE ANDAMAN ISLAND 
CHAIN. CONVECTION CONTINUES TO FLARE NEAR THE LLCC BUT IS SHEARED BY 
THE PERSISTENT EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS 
REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE WESTWARD 
AND EQUATORWARD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, LOW (5-15 KTS ) VERTICAL WIND 
SHEAR, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 28-29 C. GLOBAL 
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS SHOW 94B CONSOLIDATING OVER THE NEXT 
24-48 HOURS BEFORE TRACKING GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL 
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
REMAINS LOW.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 24OCT25 0600Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (CHENGE) WAS LOCATED 
NEAR 9.2S 55.6E, APPROXIMATELY 661 NM NORTH OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, 
AND HAD TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX 
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 40 KNOTS 
GUSTING TO 50 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 240900) FOR FURTHER 
DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
9.8S 84.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.7S 79.6E, APPROXIMATELY 431 NM EAST 
OF DIEGO GARCIA. ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS A 
BROAD AREA OF TROUGHING WITH FLARING CONVECTION. ENVIRONMENTAL 
ANALYSIS REVEALS MARGINAL CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH HIGH 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20-25 KNOTS), POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND WARM 
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-29C). GLOBAL MODELS HAVE CONSISTENTLY 
INDICATED A LOWER LIKELIHOOD OF DEVELOPMENT OF INVEST 95S THROUGH THE 
LAST SEVERAL RUNS, INSTEAD REVEALING AN ASYMMETRIC TROUGH WITH 
ENHANCED WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. THE DISTURBANCE IS 
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON A WESTWARD TRACK TOWARDS DIEGO GARCIA. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 22 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
REMAINS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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