ABIO10 PGTW 241000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN 
REISSUED/241000Z-241800ZOCT2025//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/240751ZOCT2025//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92A) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
10.7N 70.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 71.0EE, APPROXIMATELY 324 NM 
WEST-NORTHWEST OF COCHIN. ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) 
DEPICTS A BROAD DISORGANIZED CIRCULATION WITH FLARING CONVECTION 
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). 
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS MARGINAL CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT 
WITH MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20-25 KNOTS), DIFFLUENT 
OUTFLOW, AND WARM SURFACE TEMPERATURES (27-28 C). GLOBAL MODELS 
DEPICT A BROAD CIRCULATION MOVING WITH A NORTHWARD TRACK IN THE 
ARABIAN SEA OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE 
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94B) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 10.8N 
89.5E, APPROXIMATELY 562 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHENNAI, INDIA. 
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LLCC EMBEDDED 
WITHIN A TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF SOUTHEASTERN INDIA TO 
THE ANDAMAN ISLAND. CONVECTION CONTINUES TO FLARE UP NEAR THE LLCC 
BUT IS BEING SHEARED BY THE PERSISTENT EASTERLY SHEAR. ENVIRONMENTAL 
ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FORMATION WITH MODERATE 
WESTWARD AND EQUATORWARD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR 
OF 5-15 KTS, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 28-29 C. GLOBAL 
MODELS SHOW 94B CONSOLIDATING OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS BEFORE TRACKING 
GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD, THOUGH ECENS DEPICTS IT RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING 
UNLIKE GEFS OR THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS, WHICH SHOW A MUCH SLOWER 
RATE OF INTENSIFICATION AND AN OVERALL WEAKER SYSTEM. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS IS LOW.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 24OCT25 0600Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (CHENGE) WAS LOCATED 
NEAR 9.2S 55.6E, APPROXIMATELY 661 NM NORTH OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, 
AND HAD TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX 
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 40 KNOTS 
GUSTING TO 50 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 240900) FOR FURTHER 
DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
9.5S 85.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.8S 84.4E, APPROXIMATELY 719 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) 
DEPICTS A BROAD AREA OF LINEAR, CYCLING CONVECTION. ENVIRONMENTAL 
ANALYSIS REVEALS MARGINAL CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20 KNOTS), POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND WARM 
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-29C). GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF IN 
THE DEVELOPMENT OF INVEST 95S, WITH PRIMARILY NAVGEM SHOWING A BROAD 
CIRCULATION, THEN FALLING OFF AFTER TAU 48. IT IS SUSPECTED THAT 
MODELS ARE PICKING UP ON THIS SYSTEM DUE TO THE ENVIRONMENTAL SURGE 
FLOW ON THE POLEWARD SIDE, WHICH IS INDUCED BY THE PRESSURE GRADIENT, 
AND GENERAL TROUGHING IN THE REGION. MODELS INDICATE A WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK NEAR DIEGO GARCIA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE 
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 22 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED 
TO LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED LOW AREA IN PARA. 1.B.(2)//
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