ABPW10 PGTW 231800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/231800Z-240600ZOCT2025//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/230151ZOCT2025//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FINAL WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 23OCT25 0000Z, TROPICAL DEPRESSION 30W (FENGSHEN) WAS 
LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 108.6E, APPROXIMATELY 17 NM EAST OF DA NANG, 
VIETNAM, AND HAD TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX 
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 25 KNOTS 
GUSTING TO 35 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 230300) FOR THE FINAL 
WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
19.0N 119.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 118.8E, APPROXIMATELY 98 NM 
WEST-NORTHWEST OF VIGAN. MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) 
REVEALS A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH LOOSE CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER 
THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. A 230142Z ASCAT PASS REVEALED A VERY SMALL 
ROTATION OFF THE NORTHWEST TIP OF LUZON, HOWEVER THE EASTERN SIDE OF 
THE ROTATION WAS NOT CLOSED. WINDS WERE NEAR 30 KNOTS TO THE WEST, 
BUT WERE ASSESSED AS STRAIGHT LINE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD SURGE 
AND NOT WRAPPING INTO THE ROTATION ASSOCIATED WITH 97W. ENVIRONMENTAL 
ANALYSIS SHOWS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FORMATION WITH FAIR 
EQUATORWARD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF 5-15 
KNOTS, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 29-30 C. DETERMINISTIC 
AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT ON THE FORMATION OF A SYSTEM, 
THE ENSEMBLES ARE IN FAVOR OF IT WITH ECENS BEING AGGRESSIVE WHILE 
THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE DEPICTING A WEAKENING CIRCULATION WHICH 
EVENTUALLY OPENS UP INTO A WAVE FEATURE AS IT TRACKS SOUTHWEST INTO 
THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 
23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 
1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL 
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: DOWNGRADED AREA IN PARA. 2.B.(1) TO 
LOW//
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