ABIO10 PGTW 221800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN 
OCEAN/221800Z-231800ZOCT2025//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/220751ZOCT2025//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92A) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
9.2N 68.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.4N 67.9E, APPROXIMATELY 495 NM WEST 
OF COCHIN. ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS A POORLY 
DISORGANIZED BROAD CIRCULATION WITH MINIMAL, BUT FLARING CONVECTION 
THROUGHOUT THE GREATER BROAD TURNING ASSOCIATED WITH INVEST 92A. 
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS MARGINAL CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT 
WITH MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20-25 KNOTS), DIFFLUENT 
OUTFLOW, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-29 C). GLOBAL MODELS 
ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 92A WILL REMAIN A BROAD 
DISORGANIZED CIRCULATION WITH A NORTHWESTERN TRACK WITHIN THE NEXT 
24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 
23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. 
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 22OCT25 0600Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (CHENGE) WAS LOCATED 
NEAR 10.5S 62.1E, APPROXIMATELY 639 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, 
MAURITIUS, AND HAD TRACKED WEST- SOUTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE 
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 60 
KNOTS GUSTING TO 75 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 220900) FOR FURTHER 
DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
7.3S 92.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.5S 91.0E, APPROXIMATELY 443 NM 
NORTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS. ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY 
(EIR) DEPICTS A SLOW CONSOLIDATING CIRCULATION WITH PERSISTENT DEEP 
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. 
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS MARGINAL CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT 
WITH MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20-25 KNOTS), GOOD POLEWARD 
OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-29 C). GLOBAL 
MODELS REVEAL A TRACKABLE CIRCULATION, WITH WEAK DEVELOPMENT AND A 
WEST-SOUTHWEST TRACK OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 22 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL 
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN