ABPW10 PGTW 220600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS 220600Z-230600ZOCT2025//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/220152ZOCT2025//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 22OCT25 0000Z, TROPICAL STORM 30W (FENGSHEN) WAS LOCATED 
NEAR 17.2N 111.8E, APPROXIMATELY 214 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF DA NANG, 
VIETNAM, AND HAD TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 01 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX 
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 45 KNOTS 
GUSTING TO 55 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 220300) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
24.4N 123.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 22.9N 123.1E, APPROXIMATELY 156 NM EAST 
OF KAOHSIUNG, TAIWAN. ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY 
(MSI) DEPICTS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) TO 
THE SOUTHWEST OF A PATCH OF PERSISTENT, FLARING CONVECTION. A 220108 
ASCAT METOP-C SHOWS A COMPACT LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION POSITIONED JUST TO 
THE EAST OF GALE FORCE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD SURGE TO THE WEST 
AND EXTENSIVE 15-20 KT WINDS WRAPPING ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY. 
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES MARGINAL CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT 
WITH WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30 C) AND GOOD EQUATORWARD 
OUTFLOW ALOFT OFFSET BY HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (25-30 KTS). GLOBAL 
MODELS DEPICT 97W POTENTIALLY DEVELOPING AS A DISTINCT, BUT SHORT LIVED, 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEPARATE FROM THE COLD SURGE FLOW OVER THE NEXT TWO 
DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. 
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
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