ABIO10 PGTW 201800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN/201800Z-
211800ZOCT2025//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/200751ZOCT2025//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 20OCT25 0600Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (CHENGE) WAS LOCATED 
NEAR 9.0S 67.0E, APPROXIMATELY 346 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, 
AND HAD TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 50 KNOTS GUSTING TO 65 
KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 200900) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
1.0S 94.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 4.6SS 97.6E, APPROXIMATELY 460 NM NORTH 
OF THE COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY (EIR) AND A 
201434Z METOP-C ASCAT PASS DEPICT A BROAD CIRCULATION WITH ASSOCIATED 
DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER AND OVER THE 
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS MARGINAL 
CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR 
(15-20 KTS), STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES 
(29-30 C). GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS PREDICT SLOW 
DEVELOPMENT AS INVEST 95S TURNS FROM A POLEWARD TO SOUTHWESTWARD 
TRAJECTORY OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS 
ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 27 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED 
TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT 
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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