ABPW10 PGTW 201500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/201500Z-210600ZOCT2025//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/201352ZOCT2025//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 20OCT25 1200Z, TROPICAL STORM 30W (FENGSHEN) WAS LOCATED 
NEAR 18.5N 114.2E, APPROXIMATELY 228 NM SOUTH OF HONG KONG, AND HAD 
TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 45 KNOTS GUSTING TO 55 
KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 201500) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 24.2N 
124.5E, APPROXIMATELY 20 NM SOUTHEAST OF ISHIGAKIJIMA. ENHANCED 
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS AN AREA OF FLARING 
CONVECTION WITH NO DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A PARTIAL 
ASCAT 10201213Z PASS REVEALS A WAVE FEATURE PASSING ISHIGAKIJIMA, 
WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OF 25-30 KNOTS ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY, 
ASSOCIATED WITH THE EASTERN EDGE OF A STRONG COLD-SURGE EVENT. 
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS MARGINAL CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT 
WITH MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20-25 KNOTS), DIFFLUENT OUTFLOW 
ALOFT, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30 C). GLOBAL MODELS 
DEPICT THE WAVE FEATURE PUSHING WEST AND INTERACTING WITH THE COLD 
SURGE FLOW, PULLING GALE-FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS SOUTHWARD ALONG THE 
EASTERN SIDE OF TAIWAN AND WRAPPING INTO THE CUSP, EVENTUALLY HELPING 
TO CLOSE IT OFF INTO A CIRCULATION CENTER. THE GFS IS THE MOST 
AGGRESSIVE IN DEVELOPING THIS SYSTEM, TRACKING SOUTH-EAST OF TAIWAN 
OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. THE OTHER GLOBAL MODELS AND THE GEFS AND 
ECENS ENSEMBLES ALSO SHOW THIS WAVE AND SUBSEQUENT INTERACTIONS WITH 
THE NORTHEASTERLY SURGE BUT ARE LESS AGGRESSIVE THAN THE GFS. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1009 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS IS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED LOW AREA IN PARA. 1.B.(1)//
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