ABIO10 PGTW 200600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN 
REISSUED/200600Z-201800ZOCT2025//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/191951ZOCT2025//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 19OCT25 1800Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (CHENGE) WAS LOCATED 
NEAR 8.6S 68.2E, APPROXIMATELY 271 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, 
AND HAD TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 40 KNOTS GUSTING TO 50 
KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 192100) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
1.1S 95.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 1.0S 94.7E, APPROXIMATELY 686 NM 
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY 
(MSI) DEPICTS A POORLY ORGANIZED, BROAD CIRCULATION, WITH A RAPIDLY 
CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) EMBEDDED WITHIN THE 
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE LARGER ROTATION. DEEP CONVECTION CAN BE SEEN 
FLARING UP NEAR THE LLCC, AS WELL AS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE 
CIRCULATION. AN ASCAT-B 200230Z PASS REVEALS A SMALL, BUT WELL-
DEFINED, SYMMETRICAL LLCC WITH 25 KNOT WINDS WRAPPING AROUND THE 
MAJORITY OF THE CIRCULATION, WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS PRESENT IN THE 
NORTHEASTERN SECTOR, TRAPPED ALONG THE ISLAND OFFSHORE OF WESTERN 
SUMATRA. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS MARGINAL CONDITIONS FOR 
DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND (20-25 KNOTS), STRONG 
DIFFLUENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30 
C). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 95S WILL CONTINUE 
TO HAVE GENERAL STEADY DEVELOPMENT WITH A CURVING SOUTH TO 
SOUTHWESTERN TRACK WITHIN THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL 
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1) TO 
MEDIUM.//
NNNN