ABIO10 PGTW 200030
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN 
REISSUED/200030Z-201800ZOCT2025//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/191951ZOCT2025//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 19OCT25 1800Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (CHENGE) WAS LOCATED 
NEAR 8.6S 68.2E, APPROXIMATELY 271 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, 
AND HAD TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 40 KNOTS GUSTING TO 50 KNOTS. 
SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 192100) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 2.3S 
97.0E, APPROXIMATELY 591 NM NORTH OF THE COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED 
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION WITH DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. A 
191851Z ATMS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS FORMATIVE BANDING OVER THE 
NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT AND A WEAKLY DEFINED LLCC. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS 
REVEALS A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH FAIR POLEWARD 
OUTFLOW, MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF 20-25 KNOTS, AND WARM 
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 29-30 C. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT ON 
THE SLOW INTENSIFICATION AND THE SOUTHWARD TRACK OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE 
NEXT TWO DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED LOW AREA IN PARA. 2.B.(1).//
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