ABIO10 PGTW 171800 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN/171800Z- 181800ZOCT2025// REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/171752ZOCT2025// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.// RMKS/ 1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE. C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE. 2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.0S 77.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.0S 75.4E, APPROXIMATELY 175 NM EAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 171241Z WSFM 37GHZ COLOR COMPOSITE MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A CONSOLIDATING LOW- LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH IMPROVED FRAGMENTED CONVECTIVE BANDING. A 171632Z ASCAT-B IMAGE SHOWS AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH 25- 30 KT WINDS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT, AND PATCHY 35 KT WINDS DISPLACED 100 NM TO THE SOUTH. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, CHARACTERIZED BY ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO THE WESTERLIES TO THE SOUTH AND IMPROVING EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, WARM (27- 28 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, LOW (10-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 94S WILL CONTINUE TO CONSOLIDATE AND INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS WITH A GENERALLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTH OF DIEGO GARCIA BUT COULD PRODUCE 25-30 KT SUSTAINED WESTERLIES DURING THE 180000Z-190000Z TIMEFRAME. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 171800) FOR FURTHER DETAILS. (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS. C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.// NNNN