ABIO10 PGTW 170930
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN 
REISSUED/170930Z-171800ZOCT2025//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 7.0S 
77.0E, APPROXIMATELY 429 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED 
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS AN AREA OF CONVECTION THAT 
HAS BEGUN SOME CONSOLIDATION SEEN VIA THE 170803Z GMI 89GHZ MICROWAVE 
IMAGE WITH FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE BANDING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. A 
170442Z METOP-C ASCAT PASS REVEALS HIGHEST WIND SPEEDS (25-30KTS) BEING 
ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED CONVECTIVE BANDING. ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS ARE 
CURRENTLY ASSESSED TO BE MARGINALLY UNFAVORABLE WITH HIGH VERTICAL WIND 
SHEAR (30-35KTS) AND RESTRICTED UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, OFFSET BY WARM SEA 
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30C). GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN GOOD 
AGREEMENT THAT THE AREA OF CONVECTION (94S) WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP RATHER 
QUICKLY AS ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS IMPROVE OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS, THEY 
ALSO INDICATE 94S WILL MAINTAIN A SOUTH WESTERLY TRACK OVER THE NEXT 24-
48 HOURS.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED MEDIUM AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1).//
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