WTPN21 PGTW 170300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 96W)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
140 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.8N 131.2E TO 15.3N 124.1E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 170000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 13.8N 131.0E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
13.9N 131.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 131.0E, APPROXIMATELY 489 NM EAST 
OF LEGAZPI, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) 
DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) EMBEDDED 
WITHIN PERSISTENT CONVECTION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS MARGINALLY 
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW, WARM SEA 
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30-31 C), AND LOW NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND 
SHEAR (10-15 KTS). GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN GOOD 
AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 96W WILL STEADILY CONSOLIDATE OVER THE NEXT 24 
HOURS WHILE TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO 
BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT 
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
180300Z.//
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