ABPW10 PGTW 151800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/151800Z-160600ZOCT2025//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
12.4N 143.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 142.0E, APPROXIMATELY 160 NM WEST 
OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A WAVE 
LIKE FEATURE WITH NO DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH 
FLARING, DISORGANIZED CONVECTION SCATTERED AROUND THE ASSESSED POSITION. 
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS MARGINAL TO FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR 
DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15 
KNOTS OR LESS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30 C). GLOBAL 
MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 96W WILL HAVE STEADY 
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS WHILE TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD. ALL 
GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE DEVELOPMENT IN THE LONG-RANGER, THOUGH NAVGEM AND 
GFS ARE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE. ENSEMBLE MODELS (GEFS/ECENS/GDM) ARE ALL IN 
AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WHILE SLOWLY 
DEVELOPING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS 
ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED 
TO BE NEAR 1009 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT 
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: REMOVED 29W (NAKRI) INFORMATION DUE TO 
FINAL WARNING EXPIRATION.//
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