ABPW10 PGTW 150600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS/150600Z-160600ZOCT2025//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/141351ZOCT2025//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FINAL WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 14OCT25 1200Z, TYPHOON 29W (NAKRI) WAS LOCATED NEAR 35.4N 
158.0E, APPROXIMATELY 703 NM NORTH- NORTHEAST OF MINAMI TORI SHIMA, AND 
HAD TRACKED EASTWARD AT 28 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 70 KNOTS GUSTING TO 85 KNOTS. 
SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 141500) FOR THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
12.4N 143.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 142.0E, APPROXIMATELY 160 NM WEST 
OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A WAVE 
LIKE FEATURE WITH NO DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH 
FLARING, DISORGANIZED CONVECTION SCATTERED AROUND THE ASSESSED POSITION. 
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS MARGINAL TO FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR 
DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15 
KNOTS OR LESS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30 C). GLOBAL 
MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 96W WILL HAVE STEADY 
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS WHILE TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD. ALL 
GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE DEVELOPMENT IN THE LONG-RANGER, THOUGH NAVGEM AND 
GFS ARE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE. ENSEMBLE MODELS (GEFS/ECENS/GDM) ARE ALL IN 
AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WHILE SLOWLY 
DEVELOPING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE 
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1009 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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