ABPW10 PGTW 140600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS/140600Z-150600ZOCT2025//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/140151ZOCT2025//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 14OCT25 0000Z, TROPICAL STORM 29W (NAKRI) WAS LOCATED 
NEAR 34.9N 151.0E, APPROXIMATELY 555 NM EAST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, AND 
HAD TRACKED EASTWARD AT 25 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 60 KNOTS GUSTING TO 75 
KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 140300) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
10.0N 146.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.8N 145.9E, APPROXIMATELY 163 NM 
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS 
A WAVE-LIKE FEATURE WITH NO DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC), 
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-WEST. A 132330Z ASCAT-B PASS ALSO SHOWS NO 
CLOSED CIRCULATION, BUT A WEAK TROUGH OR WAVE, WITH A SOUTHWEST-
NORTHEAST AXIS, SITUATED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF GUAM. THE ANIMATED MSI 
SUGGESTS SOME MID-LEVEL ROTATION, HOWEVER THE SHAPE AND ORIENTATION OF 
THE MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL CLOUDS IS A REFLECTION OF THE UPPER-LEVEL 
OUTFLOW ORIENTATION AND THERE IS NO ACTUAL EVIDENCE OF ANY ROTATION 
ANYWHERE IN THE COLUMN. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE 
CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (LESS THAN 15 
KNOTS), WARM SSTS (29-30C) AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT ALONG THE 
EASTERN SIDE OF THE TROPICAL UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) WHICH 
EXTENDS FROM THE PHILIPPINES TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE MARIANAS. 
DETERMINISTIC MODELS DEPICT 96W MOVING IN A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK, WITH 
LITTLE TO NO DEVELOPMENT WITHIN NEXT 24-48 HOURS. BOTH THE GEFS AND 
ECENS ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE BOTH IN AGREEMENT THAT 96W WILL ALSO TRACK 
TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS, BUT ALSO DEPICT 
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DEVELOPMENT UNTIL THE SYSTEM IS WELL PAST GUAM. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. 
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1009 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN