ABPW10 PGTW 130600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS/130600Z-140600ZOCT2025//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/130151ZOCT2025//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 13OCT25 0000Z, TYPHOON 29W (NAKRI) WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.1N 
140.3E, APPROXIMATELY 135 NM SOUTH- SOUTHEAST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, AND 
HAD TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 19 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 75 KNOTS GUSTING TO 90 
KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 130300) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
5.8NN 148.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.4N 146.2E, APPROXIMATELY 478 NM SOUTH 
OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AS WELL AS A 130433 
GMI 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A POORLY ORGANIZED BROAD AREA OF 
TURNING WITH WEAK FLARING CONVECTION ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. 
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS FOR THIS AREA IS MODERATELY FAVORABLE FOR 
DEVELOPMENT WITH VERY WARM (30-31 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, MODERATE 
POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND LOW (5-10 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. DETERMINISTIC 
AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE AREA OF CONVECTION 
(96W) WILL DEVELOP ALONG A NORTH-WESTWARD TRACK WITH GRADUAL 
INTENSIFICATION OVER TIME, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ECMWF WHICH LACKS 
DEVELOPMENT UNTIL THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE NORTHERN TIP OF LUZON. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM 
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1009 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR 
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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