ABPW10 PGTW 122200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/122200Z-130600ZOCT2025//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/121951ZOCT2025//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 12OCT25 1800Z, TYPHOON 29W (NAKRI) WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.2N 
138.3E, APPROXIMATELY 188 NM SOUTH OF CAMP FUJI, AND HAD TRACKED EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 70 KNOTS GUSTING TO 85 KNOTS. SEE REF A 
(WTPN31 PGTW 122100) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 5.8NN 
148.6E, APPROXIMATELY 507 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED 
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A POORLY ORGANIZED CIRCULATION 
WITH WEAK FLARING CONVECTION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS FOR THIS AREA IS 
MODERATELY UNFAVORABLE WITH VERY WARM (30-31 C) SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES, MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW, OFFSET BY HIGH (20-25 KTS) 
SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE 
IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 96W WILL DEVELOP ALONG A NORTH-WESTWARD TRACK 
WITH GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION OVER TIME, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ECMWF 
LACKING DEVELOPMENT UNTIL THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE NORTHERN TIP OF 
LUZON. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 17 KNOTS. 
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1009 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED LOW AREA IN PARA. 1.B.(1).//
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