WTPN21 PHNC 090700
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/080651Z OCT 25//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15.3N 96.3W TO 16.7N 102.3W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 090000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 15.3N 96.5W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90E) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
15.3N 95.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 96.5E, APPROXIMATELY 45 NM 
SOUTHEAST OF PUNTA ESCONDIDA. ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) 
DEPICTS A BROAD CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH 
DEEP CONVECTION OFFSET TO THE WEST. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS DEPICTS A 
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15 
KNOTS OR LESS), EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND WARM SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURE (28-39 C). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 
90E WILL CONTINUE WITH STEADY DEVELOPMENT WITH A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK 
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 
28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPN21 
PHNC 080700).
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
100700Z.//
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