WTPN21 PGTW 080300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/070251ZOCT2025//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 17.7N 138.9E TO 22.8N 135.4E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 29 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 080000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 17.8N 138.8E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 17
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
14.7N 144.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 138.8E APPROXIMATELY 441 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF IWO TO ISLAND. ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL 
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING BUT NOT YET CLOSED LOW 
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH FLARING DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE WESTERN 
FLANK. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS FOR THE AREA INDICATES FAVORABLE 
CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW (5-10 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WARM 
(30- 31 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND MODERATE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW 
ALOFT. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS DISAGREE IN INTENSIFICATION AND 
CONSOLIDATION OF THE SURFACE CIRCULATION. GFS HAS ILLUSTRATED A SLOWER 
TREND OVER THE LAST FEW DETERMINISTIC MODEL RUNS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 
DEVELOPMENT, WHILE ECMWF SHOWS STEADY INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24 
HOURS. GLOBAL ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT ON A NORTHWESTWARD 
TRACK. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 29 KNOTS. 
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 
070300).
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
090300Z.//
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