WTPN21 PGTW 070300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.6N 144.6E TO 22.1N 138.0E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 070000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 14.7N 144.5E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 17
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
12.7N 146.3E IS NOW LOCATED 14.7N 144.5E, APPROXIMATELY 76 NM NORTH OF 
GUAM.ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A 
CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH BUILDING DEEP 
CONVECTION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS FOR THE AREA INDICATES FAVORABLE 
CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WARM SEA 
SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL 
DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 95W WILL DEVELOP TO THE 
NORTH, AND GFS INDICATES THE MOST INTENSE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 48 
HOURS. GLOBAL ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAS SHOWN 95W MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD 
WITH BOTH GEFS AND ECENS IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE DEVELOPMENT TIMELINE 
OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 
18 TO 23 KNOTS.MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
080300Z.//
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