WTIO31 PGTW 061500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (SHAKHTI) WARNING NR 015//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (SHAKHTI) WARNING NR 015    
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   061200Z --- NEAR 19.7N 60.2E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 19.7N 60.2E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   070000Z --- 19.4N 60.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
061500Z POSITION NEAR 19.6N 60.2E.
06OCT25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (SHAKHTI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 89
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MASIRAH ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTI-SPECTRAL IMAGERY DEPICTS A HIGHLY SHEARED AND PARTIALLY
EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
INCICATES THAT TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A IS IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
CHARACTERIZED BY HIGH (25-30 KTS) SHEAR AND EXTENSIVE DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT. 02A HAS REMAINED QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE PAST 6
HOURS, AND IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD UNTIL
DISSIPATION IN 12 HOURS. DETERMINISTIC TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN
AGREEMENT ON A SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS ALSO IN AGREEMENT THAT
02A WILL DISSIPATE BY TAU 12. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS
SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL
BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE AT 061200Z IS 998 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
061200Z IS 13 FEET.//
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