ABPW10 PGTW 040600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS/040600Z-050600ZOCT2025//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/040151ZOCT2025//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/040551ZOCT2025//
NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AND REF B IS A TROPICAL 
CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 04OCT25 0000Z, TROPICAL STORM 27W (MATMO) WAS LOCATED 
NEAR 18.2N 116.7E, APPROXIMATELY 283 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, 
AND HAD TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX 
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 60 KNOTS 
GUSTING TO 75 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 040300) FOR FURTHER 
DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
23.4N 143.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 23.8N 143.3E, APPROXIMATELY 125 NM 
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF IWO TO. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS 
AN ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION 
WITHIN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM.  A 030040Z ASCAT-C 
PASS REVEALS A DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH 20-25 KNOT WINDS CONFINED TO 
THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE CURRENTLY 
DISPLACED ABOUT 100NM FROM THE CENTER ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS 
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT FOR INVEST 94W WITH LOW VERTICAL 
WIND SHEAR (LESS THAN 15 KNOTS), RADIAL OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND WARM SEA 
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30 C). GLOBAL MODELS ARE ON AGREEMENT WITH A 
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AND STEADY DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 24 
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 040600) 
FOR FURTHER DETAILS
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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