WTPN21 PGTW 040600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 94W)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 23.5N 143.6E TO 23.5N 139.7E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 040600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 23.8N 143.3E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 23.4N 143.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 23.8N 143.3E, APPROXIMATELY 125 
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF IWO TO. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY (MSI) 
DEPICTS AN ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP 
CONVECTION WITHIN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM. A 030040Z 
ASCAT-C PASS REVEALS A DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH 20-25 KNOT WINDS 
CONFINED TO THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE 
CURRENTLY DISPLACED ABOUT 100NM FROM THE CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL 
ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT FOR INVEST 94W 
WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (LESS THAN 15 KNOTS), RADIAL OUTFLOW 
ALOFT, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30 C). GLOBAL MODELS ARE 
IN AGREEMENT WITH A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AND STEADY DEVELOPMENT 
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED 
AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 
1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL 
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
IS UPGRADED HIGH. 
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
050600Z.//
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