WTPN21 PHNC 031930
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 99E) REISSUED//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/021921ZOCT2025//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
105 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.9N 104.5W TO 15.9N 107.4W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 031930Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 13.1N 104.7W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99E) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
12.3N 104.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 104.7W, APPROXIMATELY 496NM 
SOUTHEAST OF SOCORRO. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) 
DEPICTS AN OBSCURED, CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) 
WITH PERSISTENT CONVECTION BUILDING OVER THE CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL 
ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO 
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OF 15-20 KNOTS, GOOD POLEWARD UPPER-
LEVEL OUTFLOW, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) OF 29-30 C. 
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT, PORTRAYING A 
NORTHWEST TRACK TOWARD SOCORRO OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
REMAINS HIGH. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPN21 PHNC 021930).
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
041930Z.//
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