ABIO10 PGTW 021800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN/021800Z-
031800ZOCT2025//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/021351ZOCT2025//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/020551ZOCT2025//
NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FINAL WARNING. REF B IS A TROPICAL 
CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 02OCT25 1200Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (ONE) WAS LOCATED NEAR 
19.5N 84.7E, APPROXIMATELY 278 NM SOUTHWEST OF KOLKATA, INDIA, AND HAD 
TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS. SEE REF A 
(WTIO31 PGTW 021500) FOR THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90A) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
21.7N 67.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 21.3N 67.8E, APPROXIMATELY 214 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE 
IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER 
SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING AND BECOMING EMBEDDED WITHIN FLARING CONVECTION 
OVER THE CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS 
FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VWS (10-15 KNOTS), GOOD DUAL CHANNEL OUTFLOW, 
AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-29 C). GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC 
MODELS ARE IN GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT ON DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 24 
HOURS WITH MOST MODELS KEEPING THE SYSTEM AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE WARNING 
CRITERIA.  THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SLOWLY WESTWARD WHILE 
CONTINUING TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE 
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 995 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH.
SEE REF B (WTIO21 PGTW 020600) FOR FUTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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