WTIO21 PGTW 020600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 90A) //
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 20.7N 68.2E TO 19.5N 62.8E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 020000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 20.7N 68.2E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90A) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
22.0N 68.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 68.2E, APPROXIMATELY 278 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF MUMBAI, INDIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY 
DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER SLOWLY 
CONSOLIDATING AND BECOMING EMBEDDED WITHIN FLARING CONVECTION OVER THE 
CENTER AND FORMATIVE BANDING ALONG NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE 
CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR 
DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VWS (10-15 KNOTS), GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, 
AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-30 C).  GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC 
MODELS ARE IN GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT ON DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 24 
HOURS WITH MOST MODELS KEEPING THE SYSTEM AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE WARNING 
CRITERIA.  THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO HAVE A SLUGGISH WESTWARD TRACK OVER 
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 
TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. 
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
030600Z.
//
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