ABIO10 PGTW 020600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN 
REISSUED/020600Z-021800ZOCT2025//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/020151ZOCT2025//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/020551ZOCT2025//
NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AND REF B IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE 
FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 02OCT25 0000Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (ONE) WAS LOCATED NEAR 
16.9N 85.2E, APPROXIMATELY 387 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KOLKATA, INDIA, AND 
HAD TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS. 
SEE REF A (WTIO31 PGTW 020300) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90A) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
22.0N 68.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 68.2E, APPROXIMATELY 278 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF MUMBAI, INDIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY 
DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER SLOWLY 
CONSOLIDATING AND BECOMING EMBEDDED WITHIN FLARING CONVECTION OVER THE 
CENTER AND FORMATIVE BANDING ALONG NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE 
CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR 
DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VWS (10-15 KNOTS), GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, 
AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-30 C).  GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC 
MODELS ARE IN GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT ON DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 24 
HOURS WITH MOST MODELS KEEPING THE SYSTEM AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE WARNING 
CRITERIA.  THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO HAVE A SLUGGISH WESTWARD TRACK OVER 
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 
TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. 
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1) TO HIGH.//
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