ABIO10 PGTW 011800 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN/011800Z- 021800ZOCT2025// REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/011351ZOCT2025// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: (1) AT 01OCT25 1200Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (ONE) WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 86.3E, APPROXIMATELY 373 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KOLKATA, INDIA, AND HAD TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTIO31 PGTW 011500) FOR FURTHER DETAILS. (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90A) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 68.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 68.0E, APPROXIMATELY 195 NM SOUTH- SOUTHEAST OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING AND BECOMING EMBEDDED WITHIN FLARING CONVECTION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KNOTS), GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (27-28 C). MODELS ARE IN GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT ON STEADY DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO HAVE VERY SLOW TRACK SPEEDS AND POSSIBLE ERRATIC MOTION OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS DUE TO THE PLACEMENT BETWEEN RIDGING TO BOTH THE EAST AND WEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 996 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM. (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS. C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE. 2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE. C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.// NNNN