WTPN21 PGTW 010130
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 93W)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
125 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.9N 132.5E TO 16.3N 125.5E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 010100Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 14.0N 132.0E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
14.1N 135.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 132.0E, APPROXIMATELY 633 NM 
EAST OF MANILA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A 
CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING 
WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. A 302214Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS 
IMPROVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO AN ELONGATED LOW 
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE 
FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF 5-10 KNOTS, WARM (28C-
30C) SSTS AND GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT, ENHANCED BY THE TUTT POSITIONED TO THE 
NORTH. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION, WITH A WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE 
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
020130Z.//
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