WTIO21 PGTW 301800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 91B)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.0N 87.0E TO 20.0N 84.8E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 301730Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 14.8N 86.7E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
15.6N 89.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 86.7E, APPROXIMATELY 265 NM 
SOUTHEAST OF VISAKHAPATNAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY 
REVEALS A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH IMPROVED 
CONVECTIVE BANDING. A 301546Z ASCAT-B PASS INDICATES A SWATH OF 35 KNOT 
NORTHERLY WINDS NEAR THE WESTERN PERIPHERY. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS 
A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF 
5-10 KNOTS, EQUATORWARD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, AND WARM SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES OF 28-29 C. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON THE SYSTEM HAVING A 
GENERAL NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK WITH STEADY DEVELOPMENT AND 
INTENSIFICATION IN THE NEXT 12-36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS 
ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED 
TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT 
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. 
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
011800Z.//
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