ABIO10 PGTW 300600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN 
OCEAN REISSUED/300600ZSEP2025-010600ZOCT2025//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90A) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
20.2N 70.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 23.5N 70.0E, APPROXIMATELY 183 NM 
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KARACHI. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE 
IMAGERY DEPICTS AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH 
PERSISTENT CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE WEST OF THE LLCC. ENVIRONMENTAL 
ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO 
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OF 15-20 KNOTS, GOOD POLEWARD 
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) OF 28-29 
C. HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM IS OVERLAND AND WEAK DUE TO FRICTIONAL EFFECTS. 
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ECMWF 
BEING THE SOLE OUTLIER, PORTRAYING 90A TO MAINTAIN ITS POSITION 
OVER LAND AS IT TRACKS NORTHWEST TOWARD KARACHI, PAKISTAN OVER THE 
NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 
TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL 
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91B) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 15.6N 
89.6E, APPROXIMATELY 298 NM NORTHWEST OF PORT BLAIR. ANIMATED 
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS FLARING CONVECTION WITH 
AN ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE MSI ALSO REVEALS BROAD 
CONVECTIVE BANDING WITHIN THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM WITH 
STRONG EASTERLIES ALOFT. A 090930Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS STRONG WINDS (20-
25 KTS) TO THE WEST OF THE BROAD CONVECTION CENTER. ANALYSIS REVEALS 
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (10-15 KTS) 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-29 C). 
GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE STEADY DEVELOPMENT WITH A NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD 
TRACK OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. GFS IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH 
DEVELOPMENT WHILE ECMWF SHOWS THE SYSTEM STRUGGLING TO CONSOLIDATE. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. 
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED LOW AREA IN PARA. 1.B. (2).//
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