ABIO10 PGTW 291800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN 
OCEAN/291800Z-301800ZSEP2025//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90A) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
20.2N 70.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 22.8N 71.2E, APPROXIMATELY 259 NM 
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) 
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 291233Z GMI 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT AN 
EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH PERSISTENT CONVECTION 
DISPLACED TO THE WEST OF THE LLCC. A RECENT 291500Z OBSERVATION FROM 
PORBANDAR, INDIA SHOWS 10 KNOT WINDS FROM THE WEST AND SLP OF 1001 MB. 
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT 
WITH LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OF 15-20 KNOTS, GOOD 
POLEWARD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) 
OF 28-29 C. HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM IS OVERLAND AND WEAK DUE TO FRICTIONAL 
EFFECTS. DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH 
ECMWF BEING THE SOLE OUTLIER, PORTRAYING 90A TO MAINTAIN ITS POSITION 
OVER LAND AS IT TRACKS NORTHWEST TOWARD KARACHI, PAKISTAN OVER THE 
NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 
TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL 
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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