WTPN21 PHNC 290800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 98E)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
105 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.4N 110.9W TO 10.8N 115.2W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 23 TO 28 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 290600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 10.4N 110.9W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98E) IS LOCATED NEAR 10.4N 
110.9W, APPROXIMATELY 639 NM SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO, MEXICO. ANIMATED 
ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW 
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH FLARING CONVECTION BUILDING OVER THE 
CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE AREA FOR 
DEVELOPMENT WITH FAIR DIFFLUENCE ALOFT, LOW TO MODERATE (15-20KT) 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (27-29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL 
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE INVEST WILL TRACK WESTWARD OVER THE 
NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 
28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 
1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL 
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
300800Z.
//
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