WTPN21 PGTW 230200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 92W)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.2N 138.4E TO 10.5N 134.3E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 22 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 230000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 10.2N 138.2E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
11.1N 138.2E IS NOW LOCATED 10.2N 138.2E, APPROXIMATELY 40.3 NM NORTH OF 
YAP. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS PERSISTENT 
DEEP CONVECTION CONSOLIDATING OVER A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION 
CENTER. A 230035Z ASCAT VERIFIES A CLOSED CIRCULATION HAS DEVELOPED, 
WITH 15-20 KNOT WINDS WRAPPING FROM THE NORTH OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER. 
THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES (29-30 C) AND MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20 KTS) AND 
GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN GOOD 
AGREEMENT THAT 92W WILL INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. GLOBAL 
ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT AS WELL THAT 92W WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE 
WESTWARD AND INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE 
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 22 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
240200Z.
//
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