WTPN22 PHNC 211300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 97E) REISSUED//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/201251ZSEP25//
AMPN/REF A IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.4N 98.8W TO 15.2N 102.6W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 211200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 13.5N 99.0W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST  97E) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 13.3N 98.3W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 99.0W, APPROXIMATELY 271NM 
SOUTHWEST OF SALINA CRUZ. ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) 
DEPICTS A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING 
CONVECTION EMBEDDED WITHIN INVEST 96E. A PARTIAL 210430Z ASCAT-C PASS 
SHOWS A DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH STRONGER WINDS ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN 
PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS 
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR 
(10-15 KNOTS), GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. 
GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT INVEST 97E WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK WITH STEADY DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. 
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPN22 
PHNC 201300).
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
221300Z.//
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